By the end of 2016, platinum deficit will be higher than expected. This will happen because of reduced mining, as well as of the steady low metal prices that will trigger the fall of the refinery volume. For this reason, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has once again raised its forecast for platinum deficit to 520 thousand ounces (16.2 tons) from previous 455 thousand ounces.
DEMAND
At the same time, in 2016, global demand for platinum will grow to 8.25 million ounces (256.6 tons). In particular, the automotive demand will amount to 3.39 million ounces, which is slightly less than in 2015 due to lower production of diesel engines. Using metal by jewelers will increase by about 5 million ounces to 2,885,000 ounces. A drop in demand will be observed in Japan and China, which will be offset by growth in other countries, particularly in India, as well as in the USA and Western Europe. In India, monthly strike of jewelry retailers led to steady demand in the first half of the year, but it is expected that in the second half sales will recover during the wedding season. This year the industrial use of platinum will drop by 2% to 1.625 million ounces, mainly due to falling demand in the oil sector, as well as in the production of glass and electronics. At the same time, investment demand will grow by 45 million ounces versus 2015 – up to 350 thousand ounces. However, demand for coins and bullions is expected below the 2015 level – the demand for bullions in Japan dropped in the first half of this year and is likely to remain moderate in the second half, as the yen may depreciate against the US dollar, and the platinum price in terms of the Japanese currency will go up. Meanwhile, demand for platinum coins should be high, because after a long time the US Mint resumed the minting of platinum “eagles”, and the Austrian yard first began to mint platinum “Vienna Philharmonic”. Despite an increase in prices, the platinum ETF reserves reduced in the second quarter and are likely to be reducing to the end the year.
ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ
Общее предложение металла сократится на 2% до 7,73 млн унций, так как снижение производства рафинированной платины в ЮАР и России перевесит рост производства в других регионах, а также рост вторичного производства. Аналитики WPIC ожидают, что в текущем году рынку будет предложено 5,985 млн унций (184,3 тонны) первично добытой платины. Добыча в ЮАР из-за закрытия рудников упадет на 6% в сравнении с 2015 годом - до 4,19 млн унций, Добыча в РФ также снизится на 6% до 680 тысяч унций. Вторичная переработка платины вырастет примерно на 35 тысяч унций до 1,745 млн унций. Доля платины, полученной из автокатализаторов, составит 1,240 млн унций (+4%), а от переработки ювелирных изделий – снизится на 15 тысяч унций до 500 тысяч унций.
SUPPLY
Total metal supplywill reduce by 2% to 7.73 million ounces, as a decrease in refined platinum production in South Africa and Russia will outweigh an increase in production in other regions, as well as an increase in secondary production. This year,WPIC analysts expect 5.985 million ounces (184.3 tons) primarily mined platinum be supplied to the market. Mining in South Africa dropped due to the closure of mines by 6% versus 2015 – to 4.19 million ounces.Production in Russia will also drop by 6% to 680 thousand ounces. Platinum refinery will increase by about 35 million ounces to 1,745,000 ounces. The proportion of platinum obtained from autocatalysts, will be 1,240 million ounces (+ 4%), and from the processing of jewelry – will drop by 15,000 ounces to 500,000 ounces.
Source: Uncommercial joint ownership "Trans-regional Association of precious metals producers"